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Invisiblepoor boy
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Registered: 06/07/13
Posts: 15,629
7.5 billos
    #843883 - 03/24/20 10:58 AM (14 days, 18 hours ago)

There's 7.5 billion people in the world and only 17k have died from the covid.

Nerd boy! Do the math. I want to see some numbers. Percentages and shit.


--------------------
Learning to love life by living through loss and mistakes
Lessons learned then gradually surfacing, Letting go, stripping naked to scream
I am not perfect nor do I strive to be, I am alive in this world of face first falls and public breakdowns
I'm a retarded, disfigured clown
Dying to be heard through the simple art of letting this heavy wall finally fall
I'm an equal being of no race, or color, a hallucination if you will
Sneaking into the lives of strangers, and letting them fall apart to a new rhythm just to feel better


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OfflineSeanT9
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Registered: 03/12/20
Posts: 31
Last seen: 6 days, 16 hours
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: poor boy]
    #843888 - 03/24/20 12:46 PM (14 days, 17 hours ago)

thats alot of people, its like overpopulated :lolwut:


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Invisiblepoor boy
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Re: 7.5 billos [Re: SeanT9]
    #843890 - 03/24/20 12:52 PM (14 days, 16 hours ago)

Sure is and of that 7.5bil only 17k died.

People need to stop trippin'.


--------------------
Learning to love life by living through loss and mistakes
Lessons learned then gradually surfacing, Letting go, stripping naked to scream
I am not perfect nor do I strive to be, I am alive in this world of face first falls and public breakdowns
I'm a retarded, disfigured clown
Dying to be heard through the simple art of letting this heavy wall finally fall
I'm an equal being of no race, or color, a hallucination if you will
Sneaking into the lives of strangers, and letting them fall apart to a new rhythm just to feel better


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InvisibleDataM
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Posts: 2,834
Loc: Southeastern U.S.
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: poor boy]
    #843893 - 03/24/20 02:08 PM (14 days, 15 hours ago)

The problem is that the virus is firmly entrenched in very populated in countries, and mainly population centers like NYC, and by all metrics is spreading exponentially (not only are the total numbers increasing per day, but the number of new cases per day is increasing.

If you assume that it follows its current virulence, and 1 in 5 infections requires ventiliation, then 250,000 infections are all it takes to overwhelm the availability of ventilators in the US, based on the number of ventilators we had at the beginning of march. If the curve continues exponentially, we'll reach that number in about 10 days according to a 2nd-order curve fit to the last 3 days worth of data. Then you can expect the mortality rate to spike to somewhere around 15-20%, and by then the curve shows a 30k increase in cases per day and rising, or 4500-6000 deaths a week or two after infection.

On a worldwide scale, if infections continue based on a 2nd-order curve fit to the last 3 days of data, 1 billion will be infected by next summer, with 34 Million deaths (assuming the worldwide medical infrastructure can keep up, otherwise it could be upwards of 100-150 Million. For a sense of scale, the flu pandemic of 1918 took 2 years to infect half the number of people, killed nearly as many people as WWI and WWII combined (approx. 100 Million), and is considered one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

And this is all based off of data with a limited number of tests available. The situation is probably worse than we realize, and that just complicates containment efforts and steepens the curves.

To make matters worse, there is an average 5 day delay on our efforts and the actual numbers coming in. That average is very soft, and so is smeared out to as much as 14 days. Its that delicate act of anticipating the situation 5-14 days out with past and present data that may also have a 5-14 day delay backed into it that makes this effort so confusing. This is why we see health officials face-palming when our leaders try to make long-term predictions about when we can lift restrictions and go back to normal life.

Obviously our efforts will help to get us off of that exponential growth curve, but it will take drastic and consistent efforts to adequately contain this, look at how long china has been locked down before their numbers evened out if you want an example. I do not expect 100 Million people to die in the next 1.5 years, but that's only because I believe that the nations of the world and their peoples will nut up and do what it takes to contain the spread of this virus.

But yea, 18,500 deaths is 0.00025% of the world population FYI :pipesmoke:


--------------------
“The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you” -NDT


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InvisibleAmanita86
Head Manager

Registered: 10/12/14
Posts: 1,870
Loc: Just south of down.
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Data]
    #843897 - 03/24/20 02:35 PM (14 days, 15 hours ago)

....:whateverhuman:

Thanks for spelling that out for us Data.  Never seen a 7 paragraph percentage before.


--------------------
It's not easy being green..:bouncysmoke:


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Invisiblepoor boy
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Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Amanita86]
    #843899 - 03/24/20 05:27 PM (14 days, 12 hours ago)

Quote:

Amanita86 said:
....:whateverhuman:

Thanks for spelling that out for us Data.  Never seen a 7 paragraph percentage before.




:lolsy:

That's some scary numbers you got there, data, but I feel like those are some worst case scenario numbers. Glass half empty kinda shit. Like you said, our world leaders will nut up and get a handle on shit. This is 2020 for fuck sake. Not the 1900s.


--------------------
Learning to love life by living through loss and mistakes
Lessons learned then gradually surfacing, Letting go, stripping naked to scream
I am not perfect nor do I strive to be, I am alive in this world of face first falls and public breakdowns
I'm a retarded, disfigured clown
Dying to be heard through the simple art of letting this heavy wall finally fall
I'm an equal being of no race, or color, a hallucination if you will
Sneaking into the lives of strangers, and letting them fall apart to a new rhythm just to feel better


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InvisibleAmanita86
Head Manager

Registered: 10/12/14
Posts: 1,870
Loc: Just south of down.
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: poor boy]
    #843906 - 03/25/20 01:32 AM (14 days, 4 hours ago)

I don’t know man, I got a bad feeling from this one.






Data I’m just talking shit man pay no mind to me. :flowstone:


--------------------
It's not easy being green..:bouncysmoke:


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InvisibleDataM
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Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Amanita86]
    #843910 - 03/25/20 03:49 AM (14 days, 2 hours ago)

Quote:

Amanita86 said:
....:whateverhuman:

Thanks for spelling that out for us Data.  Never seen a 7 paragraph percentage before.




My numbers have nuance. High-class percentages that give more information than the requested value.

Quote:

Amanita86 said:
I don’t know man, I got a bad feeling from this one.






Data I’m just talking shit man pay no mind to me. :flowstone:




:notsureif: ... watchin' you ...


--------------------
“The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you” -NDT


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OfflineOvoidhunter
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/20
Posts: 38
Last seen: 3 days, 9 hours
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Data]
    #843911 - 03/25/20 05:11 AM (14 days, 39 minutes ago)

It's only the beginning. You'll all see!

It's all Trumps fault too. I think he made it. Prolly

Numbers in newyork are not looking good at all.

I am pretty high tho.


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Invisiblepoor boy
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Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Ovoidhunter]
    #843912 - 03/25/20 05:26 AM (14 days, 25 minutes ago)

You will go out of your way to use an apostrophe in it's, but you didn't fully spell probably or though?


--------------------
Learning to love life by living through loss and mistakes
Lessons learned then gradually surfacing, Letting go, stripping naked to scream
I am not perfect nor do I strive to be, I am alive in this world of face first falls and public breakdowns
I'm a retarded, disfigured clown
Dying to be heard through the simple art of letting this heavy wall finally fall
I'm an equal being of no race, or color, a hallucination if you will
Sneaking into the lives of strangers, and letting them fall apart to a new rhythm just to feel better


Post Extras: Print Post  Remind Me! Notify Moderator
OfflineOvoidhunter
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/20
Posts: 38
Last seen: 3 days, 9 hours
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: poor boy]
    #843913 - 03/25/20 06:22 AM (13 days, 23 hours ago)

You know what I mean that's the important thing.


Right? I mean if I was like some other people I see.


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OfflineSeanT9
Stranger

Registered: 03/12/20
Posts: 31
Last seen: 6 days, 16 hours
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Ovoidhunter]
    #843918 - 03/25/20 01:31 PM (13 days, 16 hours ago)

:lolwut:


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OfflineOvoidhunter
Stranger
Registered: 03/16/20
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Last seen: 3 days, 9 hours
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: SeanT9]
    #843924 - 03/25/20 11:21 PM (13 days, 6 hours ago)

Chill out man


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OfflineSeanT9
Stranger

Registered: 03/12/20
Posts: 31
Last seen: 6 days, 16 hours
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Ovoidhunter]
    #843925 - 03/26/20 12:53 PM (12 days, 16 hours ago)

:aweohyou:


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OfflineMof
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Registered: 07/02/08
Posts: 683
Last seen: 8 hours, 50 minutes
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: SeanT9]
    #843928 - 03/26/20 03:11 PM (12 days, 14 hours ago)

covid is jus media slang
it's actually SARS 2.0
they were testing diseases on bats and one of them got out in Wuhan and contaminated the food market close by
it's not bat flu it's fucking SARS lol


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Invisiblepoor boy
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Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Mof]
    #843929 - 03/26/20 03:59 PM (12 days, 13 hours ago)

There's no truth behind that


--------------------
Learning to love life by living through loss and mistakes
Lessons learned then gradually surfacing, Letting go, stripping naked to scream
I am not perfect nor do I strive to be, I am alive in this world of face first falls and public breakdowns
I'm a retarded, disfigured clown
Dying to be heard through the simple art of letting this heavy wall finally fall
I'm an equal being of no race, or color, a hallucination if you will
Sneaking into the lives of strangers, and letting them fall apart to a new rhythm just to feel better


Post Extras: Print Post  Remind Me! Notify Moderator
InvisibleDataM
That Guy
Male


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 2,834
Loc: Southeastern U.S.
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Mof]
    #843930 - 03/26/20 04:52 PM (12 days, 12 hours ago)

Yea man it's true that covid-19 was the interim name for the illness caused by the virus eventually names SARS-CoV-2.

There is no evidence that the rest of what you said is the source of SARS-CoV-2. Coronavirus strains are common in a decent number of mammalian animal populations, so  it doesn't require human intervention for coronavirus to be around in animals.


--------------------
“The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you” -NDT


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OfflineMof
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Registered: 07/02/08
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Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Data]
    #843954 - 03/28/20 12:05 AM (11 days, 5 hours ago)

It requires fucking. Data did you try fucking the bats to make robot bats?


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Invisiblepoor boy
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Registered: 06/07/13
Posts: 15,629
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Mof]
    #843958 - 03/28/20 06:27 AM (10 days, 23 hours ago)

That's a weird thing to say


--------------------
Learning to love life by living through loss and mistakes
Lessons learned then gradually surfacing, Letting go, stripping naked to scream
I am not perfect nor do I strive to be, I am alive in this world of face first falls and public breakdowns
I'm a retarded, disfigured clown
Dying to be heard through the simple art of letting this heavy wall finally fall
I'm an equal being of no race, or color, a hallucination if you will
Sneaking into the lives of strangers, and letting them fall apart to a new rhythm just to feel better


Post Extras: Print Post  Remind Me! Notify Moderator
InvisibleDataM
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Male


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Registered: 08/12/08
Posts: 2,834
Loc: Southeastern U.S.
Re: 7.5 billos [Re: Mof]
    #843961 - 03/28/20 08:09 AM (10 days, 21 hours ago)

Quote:

Mof said:
It requires fucking. Data did you try fucking the bats to make robot bats?




Come on man, that's ridiculous...everybody knows fucking bats just breeds roboSARS.


--------------------
“The Universe is under no obligation to make sense to you” -NDT


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